Thursday, February 17, 2005

Bradt's Worst (and Best) in the National League

Pitchers and catchers have officially reported for the Cubs, meaning the long and taxing winter is officially over. Don't tell that to the weather in South Bend, though, as it continues to snow. What better way to say good-bye to the winter that by making my picks for the National League? My picks for the American League will follow shortly.

National League West

1.

Yes, they lost a Finley and a Beltre but they gained a Drew who last year proved that, when healthy he's a feared power left-handed bat in that lineup. Hee Seop Choi will finally get a chance to show what he is capable of, as Ventura and Green are both gone. Will there be a more hilarious sight, by the way, than watching Jose Valentin try to hit home runs at Chavez Ravine?

2.

I hate Moisty Alou as much as the next guy does, but he is an improvement over the crappy outfield the Giants had last year, and they still won 91 games. Felipe Alou is a great manager, Jason Schmidt is an outstanding pitcher, and now they have Armando Benitez closing out games for them. Oh yeah, and they also have this guy named Bonds who hits a lot of home runs.

3.

I want to pick the Padres here. I really really do. But their main offseason acquisition was Woody Williams. That's a pretty miserable offseason. But for Kenny Williams, it might have been one of the worst offseasons any team had.

4.

Oh, Padres. I picked you to win the West in 2004, and you made me look foolish. You have such great young talent on your team, and then guys like Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko go out and lay big turds at the plate in 2004. I have to pick you for fourth place, but thank you for Dave Hansen.

5.

I have to admit that I root against expansion teams, and I just generally hate the Rockies for no good reason. If you can say one good thing about the Rockies, it's that they're young. If you can say one bad thing about the Rockies, it's that they completely blow at baseball. Todd Helton, please come to the Cubs. Thank you.

National League Central

1.

Am I biased? Yes, but it's my damn blog, so shut up. This team is only returning one starting position player (Corey Patterson) from its 2003 NL Central Championship Opening Day roster. Yes, the outfield currently sucks, with Jeromy Beernuts taking over for Sammy Sosa in right field. But their infield is the best in the National League, with Aramis Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra, Todd Walker, Derek Lee, and Michael Barrett all capable of mashing the ball. Plus, Jim Hendry could still swing a deal for a real outfielder right, Jim? Austin Kearns or Wily Mo Pena, Jim? Jim? I hope that rookie Jason Dubois, who has done nothing but hit the tar out of the ball in the minors, gets a chance to start. If not, I blame Dusty Baker. By the way, now that the "Big Three" in Oakland is broken up, is there any argument that the Cubs have the best pitching staff in baseball? The answer is "no."

2.

How the hell does an entire team have a career year at the same time? That's what happened with the 2004 version of the Cardinals. Tony Womack? Sucks. Chris Carpenter? Sucks. Jason Marquis? Sucks. Ray Lankford? Sucks. Julian Tavarez? Sucks. Rick Ankiel? Sucks. But they all, for a magical 2004 run, didn't suck. Even guys that don't suck like Rolen and Edmonds had above-average years. Nor were any significant pieces to the puzzle injured for a substantial amount of time. That luck has to run out this year. Their completely new middle infield of David Eckstein and Mark Grudzielanek is a substantial downgrade. Mark Mulder's arm was falling off by the end of last season, and I'd rather trot Morris the Cat out there than Matt Morris. Now they they lost Kline and Tavarez can no longer cheat, their bullpen is weaker than last year. They'll hit their way into second place, but we saw how far hitting gets you in the World Series, didn't we? Thank you, Boston.

3.

A crazy pick? Yes. They can't pitch to save their lives, and Eric Milton sure isn't going to help them out much (even though he almost no-hit the Cubs last year). But they have the best-constructed lineup in the NL Central, and they, like the Cardinals, may actually have enough to hit themselves into third place. I hope they do, too. I love Kearns, Dunn, Pena, and Freel, and I hope all of them have great years against everyone but the Cubs.

4.

Ha ha ha!!!! The three guys brought in to save the team in 2004 screwed the Astros in 2005. Andy Pettitte threw, what, twelve innings last year? That contract is horrendous and leaves the Astros with very little payroll flexibility. Carlos Beltran held out just long enough so that the Astros couldn't make any serious runs at a significant free agent. And Roger Clemens, who was such a "nice guy" for taking a hometown discount last year proceeded to hold the Astros over a barrel and extorted $18 million from them. It couldn't have happened to a nicer team. Lance "Fat Elvis" Berkman won't be ready to start the season and, assuming they move Biggio back to second base, who starts in center? Charles Gipson? Trenidad Hubbard? Oh please, God, if you're up there let it be one of those two guys.

5.

Other than Ben Sheets and Doug Davis, the Brewers pitching is a series of question marks. The plus side, though, is that they have extraordinary young talent and smart management. They fleeced the White Sox to get Carlos Lee for essentially nothing. Lee and Jenkins could be a solid 3-4 in the lineup, but the Brewers need to get older quickly before they can be considered serious contenders. As soon as their young guys develop, though, they will be incredibly fun to watch. I hope, for their sake, that they will be able to hang on to Ben Sheets long enough to play with those guys.

6.

The Pirates are the polar opposites of the Reds. They have decent young pitching in Kip Wells, Oliver Perez, and (to a lesser extent) Josh Fogg. But there is no one in that lineup that is truly fearsome. Jason Bay will be some day, and Craig Wilson has his moments, but there can't be a lot of intentional walks issued to the Pirates. Losing Jason Kendall didn't help that lineup, either, as he was consistently a great table-setter for the Bucs. Until they get some legitimate power in that lineup, the Pirates are going to be bottom-feeders for a while, and that thirteen year losing streak will continue.

NL East

1.

Give me a reason not to pick the Braves. They've won with pitching. They've won with hitting. They've won with neither. While Tim Hudson's problems at the end of last season scare me as much as Mark Mulder's do, Hudson + Leo Mazzone = potential Cy Young winner. The addition of Dan Kolb gives Smoltz a chance to move back into the starting rotation, and it will be interesting to see if he can make the transition. He's an old man now, and he hasn't started for several years. Again, the Mazzone factor makes me a believer, though. The team will still hit, even with the loss of Drew, as they have the Jones boys, Furcal, Marcus Giles, LaRoche, and Estrada to pick up the slack. Until someone in the East actually proves that they can step up and beat the Braves, I'm going to continue to pick them.

2.

Why does anyone ever believe that the Marlins need to cut salary? They said it in 2003 and signed Pudge. They said it this offseason and signed Delgado. Hey, jerks? No one believes you anymore. Delgado, LoDuca, Cabrera, and Lowell are impressive in the middle of the order, and they still have that young pitching (Leiter excluded). Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo get on base enough for the Marlins to score a bunch of runs and make a run at the East.

3.

Grr. I hate picking the Mets to do anything other than die in a horrible plane crash, but I'm going to have to do so. They had an extremely noisy offseason. While I don't think a rotation of Glavine, Pedro, Benson, Trachsel, and Zambrano is particularly good, it's better than what they had last year. Beltran, that freaking sellout, is a big addition to the lineup, and David Wright can really smack the ball. That's a pretty good infield with Wright, Matsui, Reyes, and Mientkiewicz around the horn. All that being said, though, this is the Mets we're talking about. History says they'll suck.

4.

The Phillies are another team that didn't really do much other than replace Kevin Millwood with Jon Lieber. That said, they weren't at all bad last year, and should be able to finish third in the NL East. Pat Burrell is an enigma and, for the Phillies' sake, he'd better hit more like he did in 2002 and 2004 as opposed to 2003. Bobby Abreu continues to be the most underrated player in the National League and, perhaps, all of baseball. The guy is a monster. I always root for Jim Thome, for some reason, and I actually hope the Phillies can beat out the Marlins and Mets for the two spot. I just don't see it happening with their lack of pitching, though.

5.

Let's face it. You can change the name, you can change the uniform, and you can change the city and the country, but these are still the Expos. They can't hit, they can't pitch, and they can't win. Jose Guillen was a nice pickup, as was Cristian Guzman, but they still have to overpay people to come play for them, and they are going to be bottom-feeders once again in the East. On the plus side, that means that players like Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge might become available at the trading deadline for contenders who need outfielders like oh, say, the Cubs, for example.

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